Introduction to Decision Science

Final Quiz

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Assessment

1. What is decision science primarily concerned with? A. Eliminating uncertainty from every choice B. Improving decision quality under uncertainty, constraints, and tradeoffs C. Making every decision by instinct D. Avoiding decisions whenever possible

2. Why can a good decision still have a bad outcome? A. Outcomes can be affected by uncertainty, chance, and factors outside the decision maker's control B. Good decisions always guarantee good outcomes C. Bad outcomes prove the decision process was flawed D. Decision quality cannot be evaluated

3. What is decision framing? A. Choosing the answer before analysis B. Ignoring alternatives C. Defining the decision question, scope, constraints, stakeholders, and context D. Measuring only the final outcome

4. Why do objectives matter? A. They eliminate all tradeoffs B. They make evidence unnecessary C. They guarantee agreement D. They clarify what the decision is trying to achieve or optimize

5. What is opportunity cost? A. The value of what is given up when one option is chosen over another B. The price of decision software C. A way to avoid tradeoffs D. A guarantee that an option is best

6. Why should decision makers avoid false binaries? A. Every decision has exactly two choices B. Many decisions have more than two possible options, combinations, sequences, or experiments C. More options always make decisions impossible D. False binaries improve creativity

7. What is uncertainty? A. Proof that no decision can be made B. A guarantee of failure C. Incomplete knowledge about facts, future states, risks, or outcomes D. A replacement for evidence

8. What are base rates useful for? A. Replacing all specific evidence B. Guaranteeing the future C. Removing the need for assumptions D. Providing background frequencies or prior information that can improve judgment

9. What is expected value at a high level? A. A way to think about outcomes by combining likelihood and consequence B. A guarantee of the best result C. A method for ignoring risk D. A measure of confidence only

10. Why should decisions consider tail risks? A. Tail risks never affect real decisions B. Rare but severe outcomes can matter even if average expectations look acceptable C. Tail risks only matter in games D. Tail risks eliminate upside

11. What is cognitive bias? A. A sign that a person is unintelligent B. A formal project plan C. A predictable tendency in judgment that can influence reasoning or decisions D. A way to prove an argument

12. What is noise in decision-making? A. Any disagreement between people B. A communication style C. A guarantee of bias D. Unwanted variation in judgments that should be consistent

13. What is a pre-mortem? A. A structured exercise that imagines a future failure and asks what might have caused it B. A way to blame people after failure C. A replacement for all risk management D. A method for avoiding evidence

14. Why are decision records useful? A. They make every decision correct B. They capture the frame, evidence, assumptions, tradeoffs, and reasoning so decisions can be reviewed and improved C. They eliminate uncertainty D. They replace accountability

15. Which statement best summarizes decision science? A. Decision science guarantees perfect prediction B. Decision science means trusting the loudest person in the room C. Decision science helps people define choices, clarify objectives, evaluate uncertainty, compare tradeoffs, reduce avoidable error, and learn from outcomes D. Decision science removes the need for judgment